2011 NRL Premiership Analysis and Betting Guide

Posted at March 6th, 2011 Add your comment

This article is a preview of the104th National Rugby League season in which 16 teams participate which include 15 teams that are based in Australia and 1 New Zealand based team.

The article includes participating teams and their key players, each teams current odds for winning the premiership, which sportsbooks take bets on the NRL, the most popular betting options and which teams have the strongest home winning records in the NRL, also included in the article is betting advice for NRL games.

St George Dragons

Will go into this seaon as defending premiers, a big plus is that they have retained most of their grand final winning squad. St George also are world champions after beating Wigan from the UK superleague in the 2011 world club challenge in stylish fashion with a come from behind victory in England. Look set for a big 2011 season and can win the premiership again.

Premiership Odds at Bet365: $5.00 Fav
Key Players: Matt Cooper, Brett Morris, Jamie Soward, Mark Gasnier, Michael Weyman and Darius Boyd

Sydney Roosters

This team finished last in 2009 only to turn that around and make it to the grand final last season which was a massive improvement. Unfortunately they were beaten convincingly by St George. 2011 could be different as now they have expectation from the fans and will be under alot of pressure to repeat last years performance, where as last season there was no pressure or expectation. The squad undergoes no drastic changes from last season.

Premiership Odds at Bet365: $8.50
Key Players: Todd Carney, Braith Anasta, Mitchell Pierce and Shaun Kenney-Dowell

Brisbane Broncos

Had a dissapointing season last year and missed the finals due to a large amount of injuries to its squad including the inspirationalal captain Darren Lockyer, who missed out on a large amount of the 2010 season due to injury. The squad looks very strong and will be out to improve on a dissapointing 2010 season. The coach Ivan Henjak was sacked on the 25/2/2010 and replaced by his assistant for the remainder of the season.

Premiership odds at Bet365: $9.00
Key Players: Darren Lockyer, Sam Thaiday and Justin Hodges

South Sydney Rabbitohs

The team owned by actor Russel Crowe has spent wisely this year and bought the player who many consider the best in the world. The player who i am talking about is Greg Inglis. Sam Burgess the UK import has been sensational and will improve again this season. South sydney just missed the finals last year and will be looking to atone for that this season.

Premiership odds at Bet365 $9.00
Key Players: Greg Inglis, Isaac Luke, Dave Taylor and Sam Burgess

Wests Tigers

Made the finals last season and bowed out to eventual champions St George narrowly 13-12. The squad is very talented and the combinations between Benji Marshall and Robbie Farah is freakish, they pass the ball without looking as they just know where each other are on the field. On their day this team is unbeatable but consistency has always been a major problem for them.

Premiership odds at Bet365 $9.00
Key Players: Benji Marshall, Robbie Farah, Gareth Ellis and Chris Lawrence

Melbourne Storm

Currently in a rebuilding stage after last season saw them finish last, stripped of all competition points for breaching the salary cap. Greg Inglis was a major loss but the team still has the 3 Australian representatives which are Cooper Cronk, Billy Slater and Cameron Smith. It would be foolish to write this team off.

Premiership odds at Bet365 $10.00
Key Players: Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith

Canterbury Bulldogs

Dissapointing season in 2010 where they underperformed as the team is very strong with a nice mix of experience and youth. Big things are expected from Ben Barba this year and Brett Morris has blistering pace and will score plenty of tries.

Premiership odds at Bet365 $13.00
Key Players: Andrew Ryan, Jamal Indris, Brett Morris and Ben Barba

Gold Coast Titans

On paper have one of the best squads in the NRL, there is a long list of current Representative players and up and comming young stars. The team made the finals in 2010 and fell one game short of making the grand final, that experience should put them in a good frame of mind for this season.

Premiership odds at Bet365 $13.00
Key Players: Scott Prince, Greg Bird, Ashley Harrison, Preston Campbell, William Zillman and Nathan Friend

Penrith Panthers

Were leading the competion in 2010 for a long way and easily made the finals where they lost their 2 games and were eliminated. Injuries took a toll at the wrong time last season and if the squad remains injury free they are a big chance.

Premiership odds at Bet365 $15.00
Key Players: Michael Jennings, Luke Lewis, Lachlan Coote and Trent Waterhouse

New Zealand Warriors

Have the biggest team in the NRL and are also very physical. The team plays a free flowing style which at time can bewilder their opponents, they are a team which on their day can match it with the best but when it is not their day can be embarrased by the opposition. Consistency away from home is a major concern

Premiership odds at Bet365: $15.00
Key Players: Feliti Mateo, Simon Mannering and Brent Tate

Manly Sea Eagles

Manly just scrapped ito last years finals and were embarrased they will be hoping to improve this year and have the squad to do so. Brett Stewart returns after 1.5 years after dealing with a sexual assault charge and subsequent court case in which he was found not guilty of all charges. If Brett Stewart reaptures his form from 2years ago he can give the team the confidence needed to win the big games.

Premiership odds at Bet365: $17.00
Key Players: Brett Stewart, Glenn Stewart, Anthony Watmough and George Rose

Parramatta Eels

Known as chokers Parramatta always seem to win the hard games and lose the easy ones that they are expected to win. The squad is very physical and play best when they are dominating their opponents. Have a new coach who will bring a change of structure and that may be whats needed to start winning again.

Premiership odds at Bet365: $17.00
Key Players: Jarrad Hayne, Nathan Hindmarsh and Tim Mannah

Canberra Raiders

The Raiders are starting to become a very tough team to beat that other teams do not like playing as their style is very clinical it is often predictable but very effective. They are packed with some of the NRL's best talent in Josh Dugan and Terry Campese. They have been consistently making the finals and may be ready to take the next step this season.

Premiership odds at Bet365: $17.00
Key Players: David Shilington, Tom Leoroyd-Larrs, Terry Campese and Josh Dugan

Newcastle Knights

The board is currently in the process of negotiating the sale of the club which can not be the ideal preperation for the players as they are constantly surrounded by media in relation to the sale while trying to train and get ready for the new season. Tryscoring machine Akuila Uate should score alot of tries once again this season.

Premiership odds at Bet365: $26.00
Key Players: Akuila Uate, Jarrod Mullen, Kurt gidley and Cory Paterson

North Queensland cowboys

The cowboys have been dismal these past 2 seasons as they have a talented squad with many players who have played at international level who are very talented yet they fail to perform as a team, captain Jonathon Thurston and other players Matt Bowen and Willie Tonga are some of the NRL's biggest star's. The coach Neil Henry is also one of the favorites to be the 1st coach sacked this season

Premiership odds at Bet365: $34.00
Key Players: Jonathon Thurston, Willie Tonga and Matty Bowen

Cronulla Sharks

Have had a last few years that they would like to forget, have finished last or towards the bottom area of the competition for the past few seasons. Financial troubles have not helped the club recruit like they would like to but the new signing of tough New Zealand International Jeremy Smith will give them much needed muscle. The captain and Australian International Paul Gallen will also have a big season if he remains injury free but overall it looks like another long season ahead of Cronulla.

Premiership odds at Bet365: $67.00
Key Players: Paul Gallen and Jeremy smith

Teams With Excellent Home Reords

St George
2010 home record won9/lost3 which was the equal best home record with Penrith, previous seasons indicate they have had a strong home record for some time. St George's home ground is located beside the ocean and a howling wind always seems to be around on game day and this wind can play havoc for opposition teams.

Penrith
2010 home record won9/lost3 and tied with premiers St George for the best home record of 2010. Located in far western sydney on the foothills of the blue mountians means that winter is very cold in the area. The crowds are large which only adds to the atmosphere and this is what often helps Penrith get wins in close games.

Gold Coast Titans
2010 home record won8/lost4 which ranked them 3rd behind the tied St George and Penrith. If not for injuries to key players, who missed many weeks the teams record could read better than it does. Skilled Stadium always seems to get 20,000 plus fans at home games which make alot of noise and can be intimidating to visiting teams.

New Zealand Warriors
2010 home record won7/lost5 which ranked them 4th. One of the main factors is the travelling as teams from AUS playing in NZ must travel on a plane for 2.5hrs-3.5 hours depending on which city the team fly's out from then its on a team bus to drive another 30mins-1hour before reaching your hotel. Another factor is the cold, wet and wild NZ winter weather which can get very wet and dismal.

Canberra Raiders
2010 home record won7/lost5 which ranked them 4th. Located in the Australian Capital territory, Canberra is known for its very cold weatherand on a cold winters day or night the temperateures can get down to freezing often covering the field in sleet and mist. The weather combined with large home crowds often make it a graveyard for visiting teams who play there.

Sportsbooks Offering Betting on NRL Games

All major and reputable UK, European and Australian sportsbooks offer betting markets on NRL games and selected games are televised throughout Europe, America, Canada and Europe on pay television. Listed below are just a few major sportsbooks which offer betting markets.

UK
Bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Betfair, Victor Chandler and Coral

Europe
Pinnacle, Expekt and Betfair

US
BetUS

Australia
Sportingbet, Betfair, IAS Bet and Centrebet

Betting Options

There are many options you can bet on, an example of this is Bet365 offer 15+ markets on games and this is a UK based sportsbook. Australian sportsbooks offer many more markets in the vicinity of 25+ as it is a major sport in Australia which generates alot of money for sportsbooks. Some of the more popular betting options available are listed below.

Head to Head
Each team recieves odds in relation to their chances of winning the game.

1st Try Scorer
You must correctly select the player who will score the first try of the game.

Last Try Scorer
You must correctly select the player who will score the last try of the game.

HT/FT Double
A halftime /fulltime double is when you must select which team will be leading at halftime and which team will be ahead when the game ends.

1st Team to Score a Try
Must select which one of the two teams will score the 1st try of the game.

Total Points In Match (over/under)
The sportsbook will set a certain an amount of points in this example we will say 33.5 points, you then place a wager on whether the final total of the match will be below or above this total.

Betting Advice

When betting on anything there are always factors to take into account and the NRL is no different, listed below are a few factors to take into consideration when placing a bet on the NRL.

Home Advantage
St George, Penrith and the Gold Coast are the 3 teams that should always be followed at home as their home record indicates. NewZealand and Canberra are the other 2 teams that will pay results if followed when playing at home.

Bets Concerning Halftime
When placing bets concerning half time such as a ht/ft double or half time handicap betting you must take into account the fact that the majority of games are close in the first half and often the less favoured team is narrowly behind or even leading. It is not until the 2nd half that the game seems to break open and as fatigue sets in the gaps start to appear and points start to get scored.

Point Total Betting
Go on google and and look for the weather conditions in the city where the game is being played that way you can find out the weather and work out what the conditions will be.

Wet conditions seem to favour a lower amount of points scored as the conditions breed errors as the ball becomes slippery. Dry and mild conditions are the ideal conditions to play in and generate medium range score totals.

You have to keep an eye on the temperature as is the case in Nth Queensland as it can get very hot and humid there while the rest of Australia and NZ is mild to cold during winter, this heat allows fatigue to set in quickly and these conditions can generate high scores.

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